Economics textbooks insist that stock prices reflect the future stream of a company’s profits on any given day. For all the brainpower devoted to these forecasts, however, they are essentially rough estimates of what may happen over the next twelve months and wild guesses about anything after that.

President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14257 on April 2, a move that he called “Liberation Day.” Why? Because that executive order, along with Trump using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA),