The data in this interactive graphic comes primarily from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Multiple Cause of Death database, which is derived from death certificates from all 50 states ...

David Wasserman is the U.S. House editor for the Cook Political Report.

Twelve years ago, just after the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Democratic candidate Howard Dean raised his voice, balled his fist and entered political history as a man whose immoderate speaking style cost him ...

The Voting Rights Act of 1965 was supposed to settle the debate over race, redistricting and representation. Instead, it started new ones. Since the act prohibits states from reducing a minority group ...

With less than a week until the U.S. runs out of cash, economists and policymakers are using words like “cataclysmic event” and “calamity” to describe what will happen if Congress doesn’t raise the ...

Don’t kill me, but tonight feels like the prologue to 2024, from Trump’s speech to the litmus tests on election issues in two high-profile races. But honestly, I’m mostly still trying to wrap my head ...

Baseball is America’s national pastime — but does that make the U.S. the country most obsessed with the sport? But predicting the outcome of a single baseball game is a fool’s errand anyway. So today, ...

Includes polls of special elections and runoffs. Excludes polls from pollsters that are banned by FiveThirtyEight, New Hampshire primary polls taken before the Iowa caucuses and other states’ primary ...

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we have ...

The picture remains fuzzy, but the 2024 presidential candidate field is starting to come into focus. As the nomination contests develop over the coming months, FiveThirtyEight will naturally be ...

Let’s get this out of the way up front: There was a wide gap between the perception of how well polls and data-driven forecasts did in 2022 and the reality of how they did … and the reality is that ...

In the first few years after former President Donald Trump assumed office, he essentially became a one-man litmus test for the Republican Party. Conservatives’ bona fides hinged less on their voting ...