The Sahm rule was triggered Friday after a surprise jump in the US unemployment rate. The indicator has a pristine track record of forecasting recessions over its history. Despite the rule's past ...

Currently, the unemployment rate is 3.6% and the inflation rate is 8.6%, so if Summers’ rule is correct ... figures rather than monthly figures. A chart in the blog post breaks down the data ...

The Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator uses only unemployment data. The indicator has a perfect track record at calling U.S. recessions ... (Shading on the chart below indicates periods ...

Last October, Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, developed a new, and remarkably simple, measure of recession risk based on the unemployment ... rule not only help identify ...

As Sahm has explained, her rule wasn’t designed to predict recessions ... data tool FRED offers it as a regular chart.) Now for the bad news: The unemployment rate has been creeping up lately ...

"Maybe you can't do early-stage recessions ... known as the Sahm Rule, says that the US economy is already in a downturn when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by ...