Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does ...

The hurricane forecast cone was introduced in 2002 as a way to better communicate the track of an incoming storm to the public. But it’s had its challenges.

How the cone is changing this year. The forecast cone, or what most people refer to as the “cone of uncertainty,” represents the most probable track of the center of a tropical storm or hurricane.

Water-related fatalities, not wind, is the most common cause of direct hurricane deaths ... of 50 miles in the track forecast, as predicted 36 to 48 hours from landfall. What are the drawbacks of the ...

Hurricane Flossie tracker. This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. ... and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

The National Hurricane Center's forecast cone showed the storm with a possibility to make landfall somewhere along the South Carolina coast this weekend or early next week.

Hurricane risk by state. The forecast includes a state-by-state look at hurricane risk. Those calculations predict the chances of a storm passing within 50 miles of the state.

That means that historically, there's a 33% chance the center of the storm will swing outside the cone. Hurricane season 2025: New forecast calls for above normal season but questions remain.