Core CPI is set to rise to 3% in July, signaling renewed inflation and raising stagflation fears as the economy weakens. Find ...

Monthly core prices increased 0.1%, a touch below April's 0.2% gain. Heading into the report, economists had expected core CPI to rise 2.9% year over year and 0.3% month over month.

On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.5%, versus economists' forecast for a 0.3% increase, according to FactSet. That's the biggest monthly jump since August 2023.

As can be seen in Figure 4, the MoM rate of change in All Items CPI in this past month (0.19%) experienced a 1-Month percent change acceleration of +0.03% compared to the prior month (0.15%).

March's report comes after inflation rose 2.8% on an annual basis in February. On a monthly basis, prices actually fell 0.1% in March, the first monthly drop in nearly five years.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose just 0.1% for the month, resulting in a rate of 2.8% for the 12 months ended in March, marking a sharp slowdown from 3.1% in February.

Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed 3.3% over the last 12 months after rising 3.4% in May. Monthly core CPI increased 0.1% in June after rising 0.2% in May.