First discovered in 1999, Bennu, the near-Earth asteroid, could possibly drift into the planet's orbit and could hit the planet by September 2182, according to the OSIRIS-REx science team.

YR4, an asteroid that's the size of a building, was first discovered in December 2024. Astronomers initially predicted the asteroid would hit Earth on Dec. 23, 2032, and it would have enough power ...

The impact probability describes how likely a hazardous asteroid is to hit Earth. For example, if the impact probability is 1%, it means that in 1 of 100 cases, it hits Earth.

In February 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4's maximum collision risk with our homeworld when it swoops back around in 2032 was projected to be 3.1 percent. Now its collision risk has risen to 4.3 percent ...

If the asteroid hit the side of the moon facing Earth—which is roughly a 50% chance—up to 10% of this debris could be pulled in by Earth's gravity over the following days, they said.

On Feb. 24, NASA announced an official "all clear" on social media, reporting the impact probability had dropped to just 0.004% and that the asteroid is "expected to safely pass by Earth in 2032." ...

Asteroid 2024 YR4, initially considered a potential threat to Earth, is now more likely to hit the moon in 2032. The asteroid, about the size of a 10-story building, has a 4.3% chance of lunar ...