The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has predicted that Social Security's 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 2.5 percent, up from April's prediction of 2.4 percent. While May's prediction is slightly up from March's 2.

On the one hand, that's an increase from the 2.3% projection the group put out earlier in the year. On the other hand, a 2.4% COLA may be upsetting on several levels. Not only would 2.4% be smaller than the 2.5% COLA Social Security beneficiaries received at the start of 2025, but it would also be the smallest COLA to arrive since 2021.

The agency that collects the data used to determine the cost-of-living-adjustment has had to pull back on how much data it uses.