We examine how the well-being of those with few resources changed, amidst economic disruption and large, transitory government transfers. We find that in the years leading up to the pandemic and in ...

What sparked humanity’s leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human ...

We use high-resolution spatial data to build a novel global annual gridded GDP dataset at 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25° resolutions from 2012 onward. Our random forest model trained on local and national GDP ...

We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched ...

We propose a method to correct estimates from historical linked data for bias arising from type-I error—"false matches." We estimate the rate of false matching from the disagreement rate in ...

We investigate how advisors’ own health and survival assessments, and information about their advisees’ health and survival probabilities, shape their recommendations regarding retirement spending and ...

We provide new evidence using a matched difference-in-differences design in rich administrative data from New Zealand. While most outcomes remain stable prior to separation, parents' mental health ...

We argue that firms’ assets, especially their tangible assets, serve as collateral restricting both secured and unsecured debt. Secured debt is explicitly collateralized, placing a lien on specific ...

What should applied macroeconomists know about local projection (LP) and vector autoregression (VAR) impulse response estimators? The two methods share the same estimand, but in finite samples lie on ...

We quantify the private returns to government R&D contracts awarded to firms. We present new evidence that R&D contracts not only finance innovation but also embed an implicit government guarantee of ...

Housing prices across much of America have hit historic highs, while less housing is being built. If the U.S. housing stock had expanded at the same rate from 2000-2020 as it did from 1980-2000, there ...

Little is known about the extent and drivers of information flow within couples, and whether spouses hold aligned expectations about the same outcomes. To provide new evidence, we conduct an online ...