Early on in spring training, a computerized program called PECOTA projected the Cubs to finish last in the NL Central Division Central with an 80-82 record, behind the Brewers (88 wins), Cardinals ...

Before the 2019 season began, opinions on how the Chicago Cubs would rebound from a disappointing finish to 2018 were varied -- but one stood out from the rest. PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' math ...

PECOTA uses a much weaker version of the theory, effectively assigning some portion of the variance in a pitcher’s hit rate projection to luck, some to skill, and some to the strength of the defense ...

There are a few issues to keep in mind with analyzing PECOTA projections, particularly with respect to the 2025 Red Sox. Notably, PECOTA is specifically bad at projecting the impact of young players.

The 2025 run of PECOTA sees a fairly week American League with no overwhelming dominant team. No team is projected to reach 90 wins, though the Yankees, at 89.7 wins, do round up to 90.

Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections for the 2024 season this week. Although there are still a number of prominent free agents available, it's time to see how all 30 teams stack up ...

PECOTA rates seven prospects as “Excellent” and 52 as “Very Good,” cutting off the fallen Jonathan Singleton as its first “Good” prospect. No surprise up top: Byron Buxton takes the number-one UPSIDE ...

You and PECOTA probably almost agree on what the Orioles' offense will do. But on the pitching side, PECOTA sees this year's Orioles allowing 103 runs more, which would cost about 10 wins.

PECOTA, however, projects Ibanez to post a .269/.340/.444 season, even though he has averaged a .286/.352/.501 season over the past three years.

Also, why does PECOTA have it out for the Orioles? Something's not quite right there, no? Here's your consumer's guide to Tuesday's 2017 Baseball Prospectus projections.