Instead, the most recent labor data shows unemployment low and steady, clocking in at 4%. Plus, job growth is still apparently moving at a healthy pace. Maybe official labor data isn't a reliable narrator of what's really happening, nor what's to come.

The Labor Department has released its first jobs report of the year, covering January 2025. It shows that payrolls grew by 143,000 — somewhat lower than economists’ expectations of 175,000. On the other hand, payroll growth for the end of 2024 was revised up quite a bit. Over the past 3 months, payroll growth has averaged a very strong 234,000.

Defying fears of a pandemic-driven Great Depression and bucking Federal Reserve interest rate hikes as well, the U.S. job market has hit what U.S. central bank officials are characterizing as a moment of stable full employment,