Early Friday futures action shows Wall Street may struggle to break a three-day losing streak. No surprise why: bond yields, which have enjoyed a tight inverse correlation to stocks of late ...

Is the yield curve no longer relevant for business cycle analysis? Or is this widely-followed signal just slow this time? Actually, it’s neither, explains Robert Dieli, an economist at ...

The July 1998 yield curve unwind (chart below) occurred one month before a very strong -20% correction in the S&P 500, but the bull cycle would ... I have no business relationship with any company ...

between the two series’ peaks and troughs and the business cycle’s tops and bottoms. Indeed, the LEI reached its low in April 2023, as did the yield curve one month later, yet there still is ...

Throughout the business cycle, the behavior of the yield curve varies. For instance, short-term bond yields tend to be low, while long-term bond premia are high during recessions. Because of this ...

When the 2-year Treasury yield eclipsed the 10-year Treasury yield on July 5, 2022, it caught many investors' attention. The event – commonly dubbed a yield curve inversion – was largely ...

"The yield curve indicator suggests growth will substantially ... This risk management dampens the volatility of the business cycle which is a good outcome," Harvey wrote. Still, it's unclear ...

Three supercharged dividend stocks have the tools and intangibles to fatten investors' pocketbooks in June, and well beyond.

The way this business cycle likely ends was finally ... but right up to where the yield curve has started sloping upward, at 5 years.

Case in point: the recession warning triggered nearly two years ago by an inverted Treasury yield curve almost ... the official arbiter of US business cycle dates. Business-cycle indicators ...

In the U.S., the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the ... historically dependable indicators failed to deliver. Inverted yield curve, for instance, has a good historical track record of ...