A recent round of tariff threats has added a new layer of uncertainty, but the monthslong track record affords economists an opportunity to evaluate what the tariffs have yielded

The risk is that a hotter-than-expected June inflation report — one that Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently called among the most important for assessing the impact of tariffs — could slow the pace at which the central bank lowers interest rates. Importantly, that could also throw a wrench into the stock market’s record-setting rally.