The S&P 500 peaked at 6,144 in February 2025. If the U.S. economy suffers a recession, the index could drop 31% to 4,239, provided its performance aligns with the historical average. That implies 23% downside from the current level. In short, history says the stock market would indeed crash if President Trump's tariffs cause a recession.

The US stock market has been on a rollercoaster during President Donald Trump’s second term. The S&P 500 posted its third worst 100-day start to a presidential term in US history, only behind Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon.

This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” he wrote, placing the blame squarely on his predecessor. “I didn’t take over until January 20th.” He added: “Our Count