Football is a low-scoring sport, and shot data, particularly on the player-specific level where sample sizes are small, is subject to large amounts of variance. If the model underestimates Cunha’s chance conversion by 25 per cent, his 15-goal tally would be reached in a more plausible 10 per cent of simulations.

Mbeumo has only a year left on his contract which gives United some leverage as they look to prise away the 25-year-old, who scored 20 goals and made seven assists in the Premier