Asteroid 2024 YR4, roughly the size of a 15-story building, has a slim chance of striking the Moon in 2032, potentially ...

But our planet is not exactly out of the woods. Astronomers say that, if the asteroid hits the moon, the planet's gravity would siphon upwards of 10 percent of the debris back down to Earth.

Scientists are closely observing asteroid 2024 YR4, which poses a 4% chance of colliding with the Moon by 2032, potentially causing significant space debris and disruption.

A ‘city-killer’ asteroid that, until a few months ago, was believed to be a threat to Earth is increasingly looking like it could crash into the Moon in 2032. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered ...

The latest probability of impact for asteroid 2024 YR4, as of June 3, 2025, at 4.3 per cent of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032. Along the top of the image is NASA's sequence of plots ...

Asteroid 2024 YR4 made headlines earlier this year when its probability of impacting Earth in 2032 rose as high as 3%. While an Earth impact has now been ruled out, the asteroid's story continues.

Depending on whether the asteroid hits the near side of the moon —a 50-50 chance assuming it hits it at all — about 10 percent of the debris, about 100 million kilograms, ranging in size from ...

If those odds play out, NewScientist reports that a direct impact could "shower Earth with a cloud of satellite-destroying shrapnel." The study concluded that, if the asteroid hits the moon, the ...