That dark blue line is inflation, as measured in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, on a six-month rolling basis. And it is going up. All together now: inflation is rising. Not maybe rising, not rising depending on what you include or exclude. Just Rising .

U.S. inflation increased in June as tariffs boosted prices for imported goods like household furniture and recreation products, supporting views that price pressures would pick up in the second half of the year and delay the Federal Reserve from resuming cutting interest rates until at least October.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, ticked higher in June.