The market watchers surveyed by Bankrate expect the 10-year yield to be 4.08 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2026 — down from 4.25 percent when the survey closed. For context, respondents in Bankrate’s fourth-quarter survey expected the 10-year yield to be 4.14 percent at the end of 2025.

Tariff shock drove yields to new 2025 lows, back to October levels, as investors sought save havens amid recession fears and uncertainty about how trade wars will impact the global economy.