There’s a significantly elevated chance that a U.S. recession will begin within the next 12 months. The odds are roughly one in five, in fact, based on the unusually wide spread between the Conference ...

The causal pathways by which tariffs could cause a recession seem dormant. Trade policy turmoil is the new normal, and may ...

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal said the US's economic forecast looks better now than it did three months ago.

The U.S. economy shows resilience as growth continues, retail sales rebound, and markets hit highs despite tariffs and uncertainty. Read what investors need to know.

As our chart of the week shows, the S&P 500 has seen a larger drawdown than the 18.9% peak-to-trough drop in the index this year during each recession since 1973.

Trump has rolled back many of his steepest tariffs over recent months, including a sky-high levy on China, the top source of ...

America’s effective tariff rate is now at 12%, according to calculations by the Tax Foundation, a think-tank, its highest in ...

The economy could still face a recession as soon as this summer Apollo pegged the chances of a recession over the next 12 months at 25%. Prior to Trump's tariffs, the firm wasn't anticipating a ...

The once-hot economy has become far less "coiled," and it’s reflected by numerous economic metrics that have cooled.Again, I wouldn’t say that recession is my base-case scenario. But I ...

Trump recession is off the table — but trouble is not over for the U.S. economy Tariff rollback eases worries on Wall Street and Main Street Last Updated: May 17, 2025 at 1:47 p.m. ET First ...