The hurricane forecast cone was introduced in 2002 as a way to better communicate the track of an incoming storm to the public. But it’s had its challenges.

How the cone is changing this year. The forecast cone, or what most people refer to as the “cone of uncertainty,” represents the most probable track of the center of a tropical storm or hurricane.

That means that historically, there's a 33% chance the center of the storm will swing outside the cone. Hurricane season 2025: New forecast calls for above normal season but questions remain.