The chances that the storm will make landfall in the U.S. have increased slightly after the path shifted south.

Tropical Storm Erin, which formed in the eastern Atlantic on Monday, may become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The United States’ National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Erin to further intensify by the weekend as it moves west.

For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August.